Three years after its first climate report, a second National Academy of Sciences report on anthropogenic warming, chaired by economist Thomas Schelling, stresses uncertainty about the extent and timing of climate changes

In response to the Charney Report in 1979, the White House Office of Science and Technology asks the National Academy of Sciences to opine on the likely timing of increases in global temperature. According to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) report (a letter, not a full assessment), “In view of the uncertainties, controversies, and complex linkages surrounding the carbon dioxide issue, and the possibility that some of the greatest uncertainties will be reduced within the decade, it seems to most of us that the near-term emphasis should be on research, with as low a political profile as possible [emphasis in original document]…We do not know enough to address most of these questions right now. We believe that we can learn faster than the problem can develop.”* John Perry, a meteorologist and chief staff officer for the Academy’s Climate Research Board, criticized this assessment in a guest editorial in the Journal Climatic Change entitled “Energy and Climate: Today’s Problem, not Tomorrow’s” by arguing, “If we have good reason to believe that a 100 percent increase in carbon dioxide will produce significant impacts on climate, then we must have equally good reason to suspect that even the small increase we have already produced may have subtly altered our climate…. Climate change is not a matter for the next century; we are most probably doing it right now.”**

*Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming (New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2010),175-6.
**John Perry, “Energy and Climate: Today’s Problem, not Tomorrow’s,” Climatic Change, September 1981, Volume 3, Issue 3, 223-225, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02423215

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The Reagan Administration cuts energy R&D funding by more than half; numerous battles erupt in Congress over the Department of Energy’s attempts to reduce its climate research budget and the content of climate research programs; the Reagan Administrative is supportive, however, of two major developments related to climate policy:�� the international treaty to protect the Ozone layer, and the creation of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

As Karen Fischer-Vanden comments, public dissatisfaction with some of the Carter Administration’s R&D funding decisions “fed an already existing national trend toward more conservative views—including the desire for less government and industry deregulation where preferred actions of private businesses are induced through market mechanisms.”*��“Carter had earlier asked us to lower our thermostats and wear sweaters.” wrote Richard Cohen in The Washington Post, “He wore one himself. Reagan, who succeeded Carter in the White House, wore only a smile. For him, there was no energy crisis. Whereas Carter had insisted that only the government could manage the energy crisis, Reagan, in his first inaugural, demanded that government get out of the way. Speaking of general economic conditions at the time, he said, ‘Government is not the solution to our problem.’ He went on to call for America to return to greatness, to ‘reawaken this industrial giant,’ and all sorts of swell things would happen.”** The Reagan administration is instrumental, however, in supporting the Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer [see 1985] and the creation of an international organization to assess scientific and socio-economic information related to global climate change [see 1988].

* Karen Fisher-Vanden,�� “International Policy Instrument Prominence in the Climate Change Debate: A Case Study of the United States.” ENRP Discussion Paper E-97-06, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, August 1997, 3.
**Richard Cohen, “Wish Upon A Pump,” The Washington Post,

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A report of the Ad Hoc Study Group on carbon dioxide and climate for the National Research Council chaired by Massachusetts Institute of Technology meteorologist Jule Charney estimates “the most probable global warming for a doubling of CO₂��to be near 3°C with a probable error of ±��1.5°C.”

The forward to the 22-page “Charney Report” by Verner Suomi, Chairman of the Climate Research Board of the National Research Council, notes that “For more than a century, we have been aware that changes in the composition of the atmosphere could affect its ability to trap the sun’s energy for our benefit.�� We now have incontrovertible evidence that the atmosphere is indeed changing and that we ourselves contribute to that change.�� Atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are steadily increasing, and these changes are linked with man’s use of fossil fuels and exploitation of the land.�� Since carbon dioxide plays a significant role in the heat budget of the atmosphere, it is reasonable to suppose that continued increases would affect climate.”�� Suomi directs a cautionary warning to policymakers:�� “The conclusions of this brief but intense investigation may be comforting to scientists but disturbing to policymakers.�� If carbon dioxide continues to increase, the study group finds no reason to doubt that climate changes will result and no reason to believe that these changes will be negligible.�� The conclusions of prior studies have been generally reaffirmed.�� However, the study group points out that the ocean, the great and ponderous flywheel of the global climate system, may be expected to slow the course of observable climatic change.�� A wait-and-see policy may mean waiting until it is too late.”�� In addition to characterizing the impact of the oceans in delaying observable atmospheric warming, the study explores the impact of both positive and negative feedback mechanisms:�� “A strong positive feedback mechanism is the accompanying increase of moisture, which is an even more powerful absorber of terrestrial radiation.�� We have examined with care all known negative feedback mechanisms, such as increase in low or middle cloud amount, and have concluded that the oversimplifications and inaccuracies in the models are not likely to have vitiated the principal conclusion that there will be appreciable warming.�� The known negative feedback mechanisms can reduce the warming, but they do not appear to be so strong as the positive moisture feedback.”*

*Jule G. Charney and others, Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment (National Academy of Sciences 1979),

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President Jimmy Carter climbs to the roof of the White House to mark the installation of 32 solar panels to heat water for the White House

At the dedication ceremony for the White House solar panels on June 20, 1979, President Carter announces a “new solar strategy,” to reach a goal to obtain 20% of the nation’s energy from renewables by 2000.�� He observes, “In the year 2000 this solar water heater behind me, which is being dedicated today, will still be here supplying cheap, efficient energy … A generation from now, this solar heater can either be a curiosity, a museum piece, an example of a road not taken or it can be just a small part of one of the greatest and most exciting adventures ever undertaken by the American people.”* [see 1986]

*Michael J. Graetz, The End of Energy: The Unmaking of America’s Environment, Security, and Independence (Cambridge:�� MIT Press, 2011) at 118; David Biello, “Where Did Carter’s White House’s Solar Panels Go?” Scientific American, August 6, 2010,

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The first World Climate Conference is organized by the United Nations and the World Health Organization

The conference held in Geneva includes 350��specialists from 53 countries and 24 international organizations and from a wide range of disciplines including agriculture, water resources, fisheries, energy, environment, ecology, biology, medicine, sociology and economics.�� After two weeks of deliberations, the organizers issue a World Climate Conference Declaration: ��“Having regard to the all-pervading influence of climate on human society and on many fields of human activities and endeavour, the Conference finds that it is now urgently necessary for the nations of the world:�� (a) To take full advantage of man’s present knowledge of climate; (b) To take steps to improve significantly that knowledge; (c) To foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity.”*

John W. Zillman, “A History of Climate Activities,” World Meteorological Association Bulletin Vol 58(3)2009,

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The National Climate Program Act increases federal funding for climate research, under the National Climate Program Office of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The law includes a Congressional finding that:�� “(1) Weather and climate change affect food production, energy use, land use, water resources and other factors vital to national security and human welfare.�� (2) An ability to anticipate natural and man-induced changes in climate would contribute to the soundness of policy decisions in the public and private sectors.�� (3) Significant improvements in the ability to forecast climate on an intermediate and long-term basis are possible.�� (4) Information regarding climate is not being fully disseminated or used, and Federal efforts have given insufficient attention to assessing and applying this information.” ��It directs the President to develop a five-year plan for, among other actions, “basic and applied research to improve the understanding of climate processes, natural and man induced, and the social, economic, and political implications of climate change;” ��“global data collection, and monitoring and analysis activities to provide reliable, useful and readily available information on a continuing basis;” and “measures for increasing international cooperation in climate research, monitoring, analysis and data dissemination.”*

*National Climate Program Act of 1978,�� Pub.�� L.�� 95-367,

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Senior Exxon Corporation scientist James F. Black advises Exxon’s Management Committee that CO₂ from the world’s use of fossil fuels would warm the planet and could eventually endanger humanity

At a meeting at Exxon Corporation’s headquarters, senior Exxon scientist James F.�� Black advises Exxon’s Management Committee that “… there is general scientific agreement that the most likely manner in which mankind is influencing the global climate is through carbon dioxide release from the burning of fossil fuels.”�� In an updated report to a broader range of Exxon executives and scientists in 1978, Black states that “Present thinking holds that man has a time window of five to ten years before the need for hard decisions regarding changes in energy strategies might become critical.”*

*Neela Banerjee, Lisa Song and David Hasemyer, Exxon: The Road Not Taken, Sept. 15, 2015, Inside Climate News,

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President Jimmy Carter sends Congress a comprehensive National Energy Plan with 113 legislative proposals, including new taxes on automobiles, on utilities that burn oil or natural gas instead of coal, and a gasoline tax intended to create a floor on gasoline prices

President Carter’s National Energy Plan is called “as ambitious and complex as any legislative proposal a president has ever sent to Congress.” ��Plan architect James Schlesinger describes the Carter Administration’s goals: ��to transition away from “cheap and abundant energy used wastefully without regard to national and international imperatives to an era of more expansive energy with concomitant regard for efficiency, conservation, international and environmental concerns.” ��The proposal includes dramatically expanding federal regulatory power over energy producers, suppliers, and consumers.�� President Carter describes his energy initiative as “the moral equivalent of war.” ��The American people, however, continue to regard cheap gasoline, inexpensive electricity, and low heating prices as an entitlement.�� The legislation finally enacted included virtually none of President Carter’s proposed taxes to stimulate conservation and the production of alternative fuels.�� Schlesinger: ��“The basic constituency for this problem is in the future.”�� President Carter: ��“We can manage the short-term shortages more effectively and we will, but there are no short-term solutions to our long-range problems.�� There is simply no way to avoid sacrifice.”*

*Michael J. Graetz, The End of Energy: The Unmaking of America’s Environment, Security, and Independence�� (Cambridge:�� MIT Press, 2011) at 106, 110, 141.

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1977

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences releases a report that identifies a global warming trend caused by increased use of fossil fuels, and predicts that global temperatures could rise by 6 degrees Celsius by 2150 due to fossil fuel emissions.

The (NAS) report, “Energy and Climate: Studies in Geophysics,” observes, “Examination of the possible long-term effects of energy use is particularly timely.�� With the end of the oil age in sight, we must make long-term decisions as to future energy policies.�� One lesson we have been learning is that the time required for transition from one major source to another is several decades.”�� The findings, the NAS notes, “should lead neither to panic nor to complacency.”^*

^*National Academy of Sciences, Energy and Climate: Studies in Geophysics, 1977.�� (Washington, DC:�� GPO, 1977), vii-viii,

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1976

Charles D.��Keeling creates the “Keeling Curve,” a simple visualization of the longest continuous record of CO₂ concentration in the world.

A paper published by Charles D.��Keeling of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and coauthors in the journal Tellus, “Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii,” tracks increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at the Mauna Loa Observatory, finding that “the annual average CO₂��concentration rose 3.4% between 1959 and 1971… Similar changes in rate have been observed at the South Pole and are evidently a global phenomenon.” The Keeling Curve shows measurements dating back to 1958 at Mauna Loa and as it later develops incorporates ice core records to show CO₂ measurements dating back to 1700.^*��As CarbonBrief comments: “With the Mauna Loa measurements continuing today,��the so-called ‘Keeling curve’ is the longest continuous record of carbon dioxide concentration in the world.��Its historical significance and striking simplicity has made it one of the most iconic visualizations of climate change.”^**

— EXTRA —
» See a ��on Vimeo
» reflecting on Keeling’s life

^*Charles D.��Keeling and others, “Atmospheric carbon dioxide variations at Moana Loa Observatory, Hawaii,”Tellus, Vol. 28, Issue 6, December, 1976, ; Rob Monroe, “How are ice-core data and Mauna Loa atmospheric data made comparable?” Scripps Institution of�� Oceanography, March 20, 2014,
^**Roz Pidcock, “The Most Influential Climate Change Papers of All Time,” CarbonBrief, June 7, 2015,

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